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Four corona scenarios: A guest article by Dr. Pero Micic
14. April 2020
In September 2019, Prof. Dr. Pero Micic spoke as guest speaker at the Ecovis Partner Conference in Fulda. At that time he gave a very analytical and wonderfully structured lecture on „Inspiration for your future strategy“. We chose Dr. Micic as guest speaker because he presented his assumptions about future strategies and the picture of the future derived from them in an impressive lecture.
Therefore, in the week before Easter, we would like to change the perspective together with you, to leave the world of aid programmes, support measures and lending guidelines for once, in order to look at the Corona crisis from a different – a meta-perspective. In other words, the big picture, the possibilities and how companies can deal with it.
So it was only natural that we remembered Dr. Pero Micic. We talked to him and he was immediately ready to share his four corona scenarios and how to deal with them with us. We will start with the first of two parts today.
Four corona scenarios: How bad will it get? How long will it last?
In addition to the short-term measures required to maintain operational capability and solvency, managers now have another extremely important task: to develop a credible perspective for the post-crisis period with their team.
Now is not the time for the future? Wrong.
Your team now needs a justified hope for a good time after the crisis. Only then will your team act calmly and with the ability to implement.
Lead your company with a realistic and credible positive vision of the future. Professional managers will use the opportunity to rethink their company right now, despite and because of the crisis. It is essential to invest in the future now.
The first step must therefore be a realistic view of the conceivable scenarios of the outcome of the corona crisis. These scenarios are just raw material for you to develop your own assumptions about the future together with your team.
Scenarios are not forecasts!
Scenarios do not predict the future! They always describe only the extremes in the space of possibilities. Is it right to publish such partly extreme scenarios?
Yes, it’s even necessary. They belong in every meeting room. That’s the only way to make your strategy future-proof. You must look soberly and critically at possible developments and develop your assumptions about the future. Wishful thinking, subjective preferences and distorted perceptions must be kept to a minimum.
Then your strategy based on your future assumptions is understood rationally, supported emotionally and thus implemented in a much more focused way.
These scenarios answer the two most burning questions for the situation in early 2021:
1. How bad will it be? Crash recession or crash depression 2. How long will it take? Short duration or long duration
The combination of the four extreme answers represents the four scenarios of a possible situation in early 2021, described by means of seven fields of observation.
Think through your company using the scenarios! You will find instructions in the video. You will also receive my assessment of the scenarios, which scenario I myself prepare my companies for and which I consider most likely.